Retail holiday sales are expected to increase between 5 and 5.6% compared to the holiday period in 2017, totaling $1.10 trillion from November 2018 to January 2019. Furthermore, e-commerce sales are anticipated to come to between $128 and $134 billion during the holiday period, an increase of between 17% and 22% compared to holiday 2017, when sales in the channel rose 16.6% to total $109.8 billion.

In a press release, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster Daniel Bachman, explained the predicted increases in holiday sales, highlighting growth in disposable personal income, a strong labor market and heightened consumer confidence as the reasons behind the positive forecast. Bachman did, however, also point out some possible obstacles to this growth over the next few months, singling out the impact of Fed tightening and the potential for consumer confidence to reduce following a significant decline in the stock market, should it prove to be overvalued as some observers are currently speculating. Rod Sides, Deloitte vice chairman and US retail and distribution sector leader, on the other hand, highlighted advances in the retail sector, citing innovations such as showrooms, interactive in-store displays and web-based AR visualizations as improvements that are enhancing the customer experience and facilitating the sales process. “The leading retailers this holiday season could be the ones who are able to strike the right balance between innovation, experience, and value that best engages the consumer and stands out in a busy season,” he said. Figures in Deloite’s holiday forecast are seasonally adjusted and exclude motor vehicle and gasoline sales.